Monday, February 14, 2011

Hopeful: the Future of Marriage

In honor of Valentine's Day, I'm sending out a message of hope.

Sure, we've all heard the statistics: divorce rates hover somewhere around 50%. That means half of all marriages are failing. Nobody likes those odds: who wants to head into surgery knowing that there's a 50/50 shot things won't go well?

Despite being frequently repeated, the statistics don't give a full picture of divorce. Overall, divorce rates have decreased since the 1960s. And for college-graduates who married after age 25, the odds are pretty great: an 80% or greater shot at staying married.

Understanding the high probability of your marriage's success is important. We're more likely to invest positive energy in something that has a likelihood of surviving.

To understand, try this thought experiment. Imagine you're a college freshman in an incredibly tough course. You've been warned by upperclassmen that the course's final is impossible: only half the class will pass. The other 50% crash and burn. Suppose you've struggled throughout the semester: given the odds, how much energy would you invest in studying for the exam?

Now imagine that instead you heard the exam is tough but possible: you've got an 80% chance of succeeding, even if the rest of the semester hasn't been easy. Would you put some energy into studying?

So here's the message: your marriage is likely to succeed. Put some energy into it.

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