Doubt the Numbers: Headlines Tell the Wrong Story about Divorce Rates

The latest US Census data came out recently and so newspapers are quick to remind us that the divorce rate still hovers around 50%. This is true, but only technically. If you really want to know your own risk of divorce, you have to dig a little deeper into the numbers.

Here are two things to know:

• The 50% divorce rate is calculated by comparing total number of new marriages to total number of divorces. Since the overall rate of marriage is declining (and people wait longer to marry), there are fewer marriages to compare to divorces, thus giving the perspective that divorce rates are higher than they actually are.
  

• Demographics greatly influence your likelihood of staying married. If you are college educated and married after age 25, for example, your likelihood of divorce is significantly lower than the national average.

Additionally, marriage isn't a static concept: expectations evolve over time. Gray divorce (divorce after decades of marriage) is on the rise as people who married in the 1950s and 60s determine to no longer put up with conditions that previously would have been endured, such as infidelity, emotional detachment, or addictions.

By comparison, people who married more recently may have lower rates of divorce because their marriages were established with greater expectations of equality. And the overall divorce rate is showing signs of decline since it hit its peak in the 1980s.

"Many Americans have ... heard this idea that one in two marriages will fail and that marriage is on the ropes," said Bradford Wilcox, Director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia. "Marriage is actually becoming more stable in America and divorce is becoming less common." (Quoted in an article from ABC News.)